As the analysis of the Western Balkans countries’ convergence toward the EU living standard was nearing completion, three unnamed diplomats and one EU official spoke to Politico about the early stages of discussing a new EU accession model — one that would allow membership without full decision-making rights.
Thus, a coincidence occurred — economic research aligned in timing with a potentially major shift in EU accession policy. This overlap gave the research far greater relevance and usefulness. Whether one should see this as proof that hard work is always rewarded or as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of circumstances remains unclear. Some Western Balkans countries now face the same dilemma.
Is there any point in writing fact-based analyses and risking criticism for oversimplification, all in the effort to find out whether Serbia and its neighbours are moving closer to or further away from the EU living standard? Is there any sense in meeting all the demands of the accession agenda, only to wait for Politico to publish what it has unearthed in Brussels offices? A true case of research and political Russian roulette! Everything seems so unpredictable — for individuals as much as for states — that it is hard to know which is wiser: to be the carefree grasshopper doing nothing, or the diligent ant whose efforts may still be overturned by forces beyond its control.
Some countries have fulfilled almost the entire accession agenda — even gone so far as changing their names — yet must wait for some distant misfortune to occur before Politico announces renewed hope for their EU membership. The political aspect of EU accession is so complex that it’s best left to political scientists — and psychiatrists.
When it comes to convergence, however, things are simpler: you are either getting closer to the EU or drifting further from its living standard. The harder part is developing scenarios of what might happen along the way — but that, too, is the work of the ant.
The Ant’s Methodology Before the Conclusion
To assess how different European integration options might influence the development of Western Balkan countries, it is necessary to model as many scenarios as possible. The goal is to determine to what extent various forms of alignment with the European Union could accelerate the convergence of living standards toward those in EU member states.
In the study that had been underway for nearly a year before Politico’s article — led by colleagues from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) — four integration scenarios were considered. The first is full EU membership; the second involves access to EU funds without formal membership; the third allows participation in the Single Market without other elements of membership; and finally, a scenario quite absurd given the Western Balkans’ reality — implementing institutional reforms without access to EU funds and without formal accession.
How many years will it take for Serbia and the Western Balkans to reach the standard of living in the European Union?
This framework enabled a comparison of different levels of integration and their potential impacts on economic and social development. As reference points, the experiences of Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia were used — countries that joined the EU in the past twenty years and share many institutional and economic characteristics with the Western Balkans. Their post-accession paths provide valuable insight into how European integration affects growth, reform, and social change.
The analysis employed Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), allowing for the disentanglement of the various channels through which European integration influences economic and social outcomes. Particular attention was given to three main mechanisms –EU budgetary transfers, export growth toward EU markets, and institutional improvements, especially in the rule of law and anti-corruption control.
The data covered the period from the late 1990s to 2023. For each country, one indicator was tracked across eight areas of convergence: economy, social development, health, education, institutions, environment, digitalization, and infrastructure.
After a vast amount of “ant work” and based on the developed scenarios, the findings suggest that reaching the EU living standard does not primarily depend on whether a country is a full member or in the “waiting room,” but rather on whether it has access to larger financial transfers and growing exports to the EU. Institutional improvements come only after that.
Ultimately, the key to convergence and reducing the gap seems to be this: the country must not remain empty-handed in its relationship with the EU. Whether through membership or the “waiting room” – the difference is minor. What matters is simply to be part of it.
Author: Author: Nenad Jevtović, BSc in Economics, Institute for Development and Innovation
